Another Round of Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon

We are under the gun again as a Slight Risk of Severe Wearher sets up across our region later on today.

A Slight Risk means scattered severe storms possible. Storms should be short-lived and/or not widespread. A few isolated stronger storms are also possible!



Our local National Weather Service in Louisville Discussion:

...A Complex of Strong/Severe Storms Possible This Evening...

The synoptic pattern late this afternoon features weak shortwave
ridging over the Ohio Valley, downstream of an upper-level trough
pushing into the Northern Plains.  This trough will push through the
Ohio Valley through the period, ushering in a couple chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

We continue to watch convection off to the west of the region.  It
has recently become better organized near the Saint Louis area, with
a strong cold pool noted on radar.  This suggests the convection
will begin to accelerate quicker to the east along the I-64 corridor
this evening.  Currently along the I-64 corridor there exists a
remnant boundary, now lifting north as an effective warm front.  To
the south of this, the airmass has become strongly unstable with
MLCAPEs in excess of 3,000 J/kg in places.  DCAPEs in excess of
1,000 J/kg should continue to lead to efficient cold pool
production.  0-3km shear vectors around 20-30 knots oriented
orthogonal to the convection should help keep it loosely tied to its
cold pool, at least through the next several hours.  We could see
convection develop along the lifting warm front this afternoon, but
this will be fighting ridging aloft and a lack of synoptic forcing
so do not think it will become very organized.  The main severe
threat looks to come with the MCS early this evening.

Basically we are extremely unstable today even more so than yesterday however the spin in the atmosphere is not as impressive with only 20-30 kts of wind shear. 40kts is decent for tornadic storms. We don't quite have that today so the main threat will be damaging winds and some small hail. Flash flooding is also a possibility with the ground already saturated due to previous storms training over the same area repeatedly!

WKU Storm Team will keep you updated as the day unfolds on social media.

Twitter: @wkustormteam

Facebook: WKU Storm Team

Stay safe and stay informed 

-AW