Warm-Up Coming, but Rain First

Climate averages indicate that the weather we’ve been experiencing for the past few days are more akin to late-September, and certainly anomalous for mid-July. It’s been cool enough to set record minimum highs in many locations, Bowling Green included. With dewpoints in the lower 50s, we’re not even close to registering humid conditions. This pattern is not exclusive to the Commonwealth either. States throughout the Midwest and central Plains have also been under this cool spell.

No doubt it’s been ideal for many outdoor activities, such as grilling, biking or basketball in your driveway. But one demographic seems to be left out . . . the swimmers. If you happen to be an aquatic lover, you know this weather has been less than ideal to hit the pool. However, long-range guidance indicates that upper 80s plus humidity should return by early next week. These unusual weather patterns won’t last forever, of course. The return to warmer temperatures/humid dewpoints will be a gradual process.

This warm-up will be partially hindered by a low pressure system crawling out of the southern Plains. Rain looks probable but the timing and coverage remains unclear. Model agreement has been rather low for the past several runs, with the short-range models especially being excited about rain chances. This sentiments are not shared by the broad-scale models. It should be noted that the former have been overdoing precipitation as of late. Our recent rain events have been more accurately modeled by the latter. Therefore, it appears the more likely forecast solution is that rain on Friday will be very isolated at best. 

Locations south of Bowling Green may see a few sprinkles tomorrow, perhaps as early as Friday morning, but these should hold off until Friday night into Saturday. Saturday appears to have the greatest probability of rain, especially during the PM hours. The farther south you are, the higher your chances of seeing precipitation. The system should depart on Sunday, leaving room for more heat to filter in.

Tonight: Low of 63° with partly cloudy skies. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Friday: Highs near 80° with a 20% chance of showers, perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Mostly cloudy with light winds.
Friday night: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours. Low around 65°. Southeast winds at 5 mph.

Have a good evening!

- Caleb Chevalier