Daily Rain Chances through Early Next Week

If you happened to step outside in Bowling Green around 8:45 this morning, you were likely treated to a very cool sight. A complex of rain and thunderstorms rolled through during this time, which was preceded by some mid-level turbulence. Undulating waves of clouds heralded the rain, which made for some neat photos, but the most striking feature was on the leading edge of the storms itself. The outward winds from the rain cooled the air enough to encourage condensation of a shelf cloud. Photographic evidence suggests this cloud was in its early stages over Warren County, and it became much more mature by the time the system passed over Nashville, resulting in more cool pictures.

Temperature analysis from the RAP model shows the warm front positioned along I-64 today at 3 PM

Where exactly is all this moisture coming from? The deep south, to be precise. A warm front edged closer to us overnight, running up from Dixie Alley and the Southern Plains. The warm temperature regime advanced to about the Ohio River this afternoon. So while the rain kept us cool for much of the morning, the warmth from the south allowed us to reach the upper 70s once the clouds cleared out. However, the warm front has ceased to propagate northward. It is now a stationary front and will be sitting over top of us for the next couple of days or so. There is a fine line between the warm and cool sectors of this frontal orientation (running west to east). It appears that we will stay on the warm side through the next 36-48 hours, but only just. Slight variations in its track could mean a 10° difference.

This front is wedged between a trough over the Great Lakes and anticyclonic flow (clockwise) over the Southeast US. Moisture is forecast to stream in and pool along this stalled boundary. You can probably guess what that means for us. That's right - rain. Friday into the weekend looks to be quite soggy. Daily rain chances should persist into next week and won't deteriorate until the front gains traction again. Instability will be marginal at best, but don't be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder like this morning. A progressive trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies over the weekend and it may spin up a low over Texas. Should it track this way and ride northeast, it may free the front from its moorings, but this scenario would also paint the possibility of a strong cold front. We will be actively monitoring the models as this plays out.

Tonight: Returning showers, becoming more numerous in the early morning hours. 70% chance of precipitation. Clouds increasing to mostly cloudy with a low near 63° and a light south wind.
Friday: 100% chance of precipitation with a high around 75°. Winds pick up from the southwest at 5 mph.
Friday night: Low of 54°. Showers and a few thunderstorms continuing. 90% chance of precipitation with winds shifting from the north.

Have a great evening!
- Caleb Chevalier