Storms Tonight Bring Big Changes

Did you step outside today and wonder if August came back for a visit? Bowling Green reached a high of 88°, with places like Hartford/Beaver Dam making 90°! You wouldn't be mistaken for thinking that this weather is out of place. We're way above the average highs for early October in south-central Kentucky. We had been in a steady incline this week. The jet stream took a northerly turn over the weekend and placed us in an open flow for southern heat. Today was the climax of the warm temperatures. Wild fluctuations can happen in the early autumn period while the jet stream decides how it's going to get back to its tropical resting place.

Just like the waves of a snake, a bend in one direction usually brings a bend in the opposite. Tonight, the jet is swinging down into the Central Plains. This forcing mechanism has aided in developing a low over Northern Missouri. Consequently, this clash of air masses has fired a long line of storms to our west, and will cross the Mississippi River later tonight. A few Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect over Missouri, Arkansas and down into Texas. Locations downstream of the storms have been placed in a Tornado Watch. This watch includes portions of Western Kentucky, but not our DMA.

Arrival time of the storms tonight according to the HRRR

The low will become more vigorous and track northeasterly, with the cold front propagating east. The squall line with this front will begin to weaken as it travels, due to the loss of daytime heating. Latest discussions by the SPC, however, indicate that winds a few thousand feet off the surface may be beginning to increase. Thus, while the storms may be losing steam, they may be encouraged to start spinning. Fortunately, it appears that there will be a great deal of deterioration in this line as it moves in between the Mississippi and I-65. Expect this line to reach Bowling Green around 3-5 AM. A warning or two cannot be ruled out, but the squall line should be far less mature at that point. The western sections of our DMA would be at the most risk for damaging winds.

Once this front passes through, we're looking at some serious fall air. The high tomorrow will be overnight after midnight, because once we're on the opposite side of the front, cool air will rush in and dominate. Temperatures will be mostly pleasant tomorrow but the chill really takes effect on Saturday. Be ready for a sharp contrast; lows for the rest of the week will be in the low 40s. We may be dodging some residual showers and thundershowers tomorrow afternoon as the low races away. High pressure will replace it for the weekend. It could get fairly blustery out there too, with gusts between 25-30 mph. Soon, it'll be time to sip hot cider and throw on the sweater.

Tonight: Thunderstorms arrive between 3-5 AM, a couple of which could be severe. Low around 67° with winds from the south up to 15 mph.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms early, with perhaps another round in the afternoon. Daytime high of 71° with gusty west winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

Friday night: Much cooler with a low near 41°. Skies becoming partly cloudy with winds from the west 5-15 mph.

Thanks for reading!

- Caleb Chevalier