Summary of Tonight's Storm Potential

As you have likely heard by this point, storms are in the forecast for late tonight and perhaps beyond sunrise tomorrow. Today we enjoyed temperatures in the mid to upper-70s with dewpoints running above 60°. It wasn't exactly humid outside but the warmth and moisture were both uncharacteristic of early November, Usually when we get number like that at this time of year, it means storms will be on its heels. Tonight is no exception. Numerous severe watches and warnings, including some for tornadoes, have been issued in states such as Texas and Oklahoma this evening as a line of storms continues to rumble through these areas. This line will continue to move towards us tonight but it will weaken as it does so.

The general agreement in the models is that these storms will arrive in Bowling Green around 3 or 4 AM. There may not be a whole lot of lightning involved due to the lack of instability, but decent amounts of shear may contribute to a strong cell or two overnight, possibly containing some brief, damaging winds. I believe the threat of any weak, nocturnal tornadoes with this squall line will stay to our southwest. Having said that, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in our region is not out of the question. If you have a weather radio, make sure it is operating correctly and have it at your bedside just in case.

The Storm Prediction Center is keeping the focus for severe weather to our southeast overnight

Primarily, we should be facing simple thunderstorms tonight. The rain should be moving away around dawn or just afterwards as the cold front slides through. This will attempt to clear out the cloud cover for our afternoon. We may be right on the flanking line of the clouds tomorrow, but sunshine should slowly overtake south-central Kentucky by the evening. Cooler temperatures behind the front will not fully take effect until Saturday. Highs for homecoming will be in the upper-50s, but the forecast will be dry and partly cloudy. Wear your WKU sweater and enjoy the festivities!

We will pass along any watches, warnings or alerts tonight via our social media operations, so be sure to monitor those for the latest conditions.

~ Caleb Chevalier