Eyeing Potential for Severe Weather on Saturday

I’d like to bring you up to speed regarding the severe weather threat for Saturday afternoon and evening through south-central Kentucky, which may present significant hazards. Damaging winds of 70 mph or greater, hail to the size of golfballs or larger, and a few tornadoes are all possible across our viewing area as a warm front will move to the north through Saturday. This will shift warm temperatures and moist dewpoints our way. While these conditions develop at the surface, rapid cooling is forecast to take place aloft, along with an increase in low-level wind speeds. This setup will present the possibility for some significant severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center, as of 1 AM tonight, has us in an Enhanced risk, but I still expect this to be upgraded to a Moderate risk sometime later today at the very least for the hail threat.

SPC Day 1 outlook for Saturday

Through the AM hours, rain will be falling in south-central Kentucky as a warm front lifts to the north. Model guidance continues to indicate that this rain may be through by 10 AM. The lull in rain may be accompanied by clearing skies, due to a punch of dry air in the mid-levels. Any sunshine we see tomorrow will increase the volatility of the atmosphere. Heating at the surface plus cold air aloft will contribute to rapid storm updrafts capable of sustaining large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, winds a few thousand feet above the ground will be blowing generously, while changing direction with height. This should encourage storms to rotate, which is why there is some tornado potential.

With the warm front expected to stall around the Ohio River, our region is placed in prime real estate for the possibility of severe storms. A frontal boundary spinning off a developing low pressure system to our northwest will act as the initiation for PM storms. The proximity to the warm front in addition to the influx of moisture and heat add to the recipe for severe weather. Though not all models agree exactly how storms will evolve, supercells or clusters of supercells ought to be the dominant mode. The latest data has been pulling back just a touch on how drastically wind directions will change with height, which is probably why the SPC is going with a 5% tornado risk for now.

Dewpoints suggest plenty of moisture available for storms to use

On Saturday, make sure you are attentive to the changing weather conditions throughout the afternoon and evening. The WKU Storm Team will be monitoring the conditions and will bring you the latest warnings on social media. This is a situation we want you to take seriously. Now is the time to review your severe weather safety plan. Be sure you know where to go in the event of a Tornado Warning. Keep in mind that storms with hail and tornadoes are not guaranteed on Saturday. Uncertainty remains as to the amount of daytime clearing we will see after the morning rain, as well as the final location of the stalled warm front. It is best to be prepared, so stay aware of changing weather conditions tomorrow and have a plan in place should you need to take action.

Stay safe

- Caleb Chevalier