Autumn Offers a Teaser

Let's talk averages. With today's sprinkles, cooler weather and cloud cover, it's evident that a change is on its way. But what about the conditions last week? Normal highs for the first week of September are in the mid 80s, but some highs were around or above 90°. Rain cooled the weekend off, but another surge of warmth kept this past week just above average, especially during nighttime. Yesterday's low of 74° tied the warmest morning low for Bowling Green on record. We didn't see enough rain to keep us under 80° today. In fact, the high was 81°. But the signs are heralding a change, and it's right on our doorstep.

A sharp change in temperatures is coming, and will have noticeable effects into the extended forecast. With a cold front already to our south and east, we're at the mercy of a Canadian air invasion. High pressure is sneaking into Montana and should be relatively undisturbed as it makes its way over the central US through the weekend. Now will it be cold enough to produce snow like it already has in South Dakota? Not quite. These will be more along the order of October temperatures, but the difference will be noticeable.

Position and strength of jet stream at 7 AM Friday morning (NAM data plotted with IDV)

We should be on the cusp of this northerly air mass before it ceases to trek south. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s into early next week with cool lows in the 60s for the weekend, dipping to the 50s after that. Like today, some sprinkles will be possible tonight into tomorrow night, but the departing cold front will eventually pull the moisture away. Drier and sunnier weather looks to be ahead starting on Saturday, so if you're on your way to cheer on the Tops at MTSU, conditions look to be good.

Models are suggesting that some highs could be in the low 80s later next week, so if its warmer weather you prefer, don't pack up just yet. Starting tonight, though, you'll notice the first signs of autumn. The season officially begins in less than two weeks, so it won't be long before these forecasts become commonplace.

Tonight: Less than a 20% chance of showers, with a low around 62°. Skies will be cloudy with winds from the north at 5 mph.
Friday: A 20% chance of showers. High of 72° and still cloudy. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Friday night: Very spotty showers. Mostly cloudy with a low near 62° and winds from the north under 5 mph.

Thanks for reading!
- Caleb Chevalier