The Warm-Up Begins Tomorrow

 *Originally written by Caleb Chevalier for use by WNKY-TV*

It doesn't help that winds this evening are blowing from the northeast, because temperatures are already in the mid-20s and the wind chills just make it colder. Where did our actual late February temperatures go? The average high for this time of year is in the low-50s. I'm sure many of us would agree that those temps sound pretty good right about now. Having said that, it won't be too long before we see some of that warmth in the region. I'll have more on that in a bit.

As the sun set on Bowling Green today, there was barely a cloud in the sky, unlike the conditions at sunrise. Those clouds will be returning late this evening though. Don't expect much excitement out of that other than a few flurries flying. A couple high-resolution models seem to think we will see a few. Otherwise, tonight will be another downright chilly one, with lows around 18°. The good news is that the winds will be slowly dying down as the night goes on, reducing those wind chills. The clouds should mostly vacate the area by tomorrow morning, and Saturday should have partly sunny skies through the AM hours. Highs will be just shy of 40°. Clouds once again march in from the west by afternoon, meaning mostly cloudy skies through the evening. These clouds will be in advance of a wintry disturbance which will set up over the Upper Midwest. Here in south-central Kentucky, we won't be bothered by any sort of snow from this. The wintry precip will be north of the Ohio River. However, it is possible that a few showers could make their way into our region Saturday night.

PWAT, or precipitable water, displayed by the GFS model for Tuesday at 6 PM. In a nutshell, this means we could be in for a good soak.

Sunday is when the rain chances really get started, but it will also bring a substantial warm-up. Remember those average temperatures? We will be back in average land for much of the early part of next week. Rain will pick up through Sunday as warm air rushes in from the south, transporting adequate moisture along with it. Sunday night, we get smacked with a cold front, but the southerly surge looks to be fairly determined to get here. After waiting in the wings through Monday, the warm air will lunge back with vengeance as a warm front shoots to the north. Models depict a very impressive fetch of moisture during this process. Basically, this recipe means Tuesday will be unseasonably warm (60s) but also very, very wet. Rainfall could exceed two inches (which happened last weekend).

Thanks for reading!
- Caleb Chevalier